UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos
September 26, 2026
📍 Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
FIGHT PREVIEW
VS
Fight Lab Prediction Engine
📋 Tale of the Tape
| Josiah Harrell | Category | Elves Brener |
|---|---|---|
| 27 | Age | 28 |
| 5' 7" | Height | 5' 10" |
| 171.0 lbs | Weight | 155.0 lbs |
| 68" | Reach | 72.5" |
| Southpaw | Stance | Orthodox |
| 11-1 | Record | 16-6 |
| 2.32 | SLpM | 4.76 |
| 0.00 | TD Avg | 0.99 |
| 52.0 | Fight Lab Score | 58.0 |
📊 Skill Comparison
Power
Josiah Harrell
0.0
Elves Brener
0.0
Speed
Josiah Harrell
3.5
Elves Brener
7.1
Technique
Josiah Harrell
4.0
Elves Brener
4.8
Wrestling
Josiah Harrell
0.0
Elves Brener
4.7
Submission
Josiah Harrell
0.0
Elves Brener
0.0
Cardio
Josiah Harrell
2.4
Elves Brener
4.4
Durability
Josiah Harrell
0.2
Elves Brener
6.1
Fight IQ
Josiah Harrell
3.8
Elves Brener
6.9
🧠 Fight Lab Prediction
🏆 Josiah Harrell
Predicted Winner
Josiah Harrell
Elves Brener
Confidence:
High
DATA COVERAGE
94%
High
🔎 Key Matchup Edges
Strongest category advantages in the matchup
Primary Edge
Josiah Harrell
+5.8
(Momentum)
Secondary Edge
Elves Brener
+5.3
(Fight IQ)
Physical Edge
Elves Brener
+2.2
📊 Matchup Breakdown
| Category | Edge |
|---|---|
| Resume | -0.6 |
| Striking | -2.37 |
| Wrestling | -3.68 |
| Grappling | 0 |
| Cardio | -3.27 |
| Fight IQ | -5.27 |
| Experience | -2.27 |
| Momentum | 5.75 |
| Total Edge | -20.9 |
Fight Lab Prediction Engine v4
📊 Fight Lab Comparison
| Category | Josiah Harrell | Elves Brener |
|---|---|---|
| Resume Score |
52.0 |
58.0 |
| Win % |
91.7% |
72.7% |
| Striking Accuracy |
50.0% |
47.0% |
| Takedown Defense |
0.0% |
76.0% |
| SLpM |
2.32 |
4.76 |
| TD Avg |
0.00 |
0.99 |
📊 Matchup Breakdown
Resume
Elves Brener
+0.6
Striking
Elves Brener
+2.4
Wrestling
Elves Brener
+3.7
Grappling
EVEN
Cardio
Elves Brener
+3.3
Fight IQ
Elves Brener
+5.3
Experience
Elves Brener
+2.3
Overall Edge
Elves Brener
+20.9
📏 Physical Matchup
| Josiah Harrell | Category | Elves Brener |
|---|---|---|
| 67" | Height | 70" |
| 68.0" | Reach | 72.5" |
| Lightweight | Weight Class | Lightweight |
HEIGHT DIFFERENCE
Elves Brener
+3"
REACH DIFFERENCE
Elves Brener
+4.5"
PHYSICAL CONTEXT
Fighter 2 longer reach
PHYSICAL EDGE
Elves Brener
+2.25
🧠 Keys to Victory
Josiah Harrell
- ℹ️ Limited statistical data is available, so Fight Lab cannot identify a strong category-specific advantage yet.
Elves Brener
- ✅ Use the striking advantage and control the pace on the feet.
- ✅ Mix in takedowns and make the wrestling advantage matter.
- ✅ Push the pace and make the cardio advantage show over time.
- ✅ Use the experience advantage to manage difficult moments.
- ✅ Use the reach advantage to control distance and range.
- ✅ Use the height advantage to maintain range and create openings.
📈 Last Five Performances
Josiah Harrell
Recent Form
● L
● W
● W
● W
● W
L
Jacobe Smith
2026-02-21
KO/TKO
• R1
• 3:01
SS
7/14
(50.0%)
TD 0/2 (0.0%)
KD 0 SUB 0 CTRL 0:01
TD 0/2 (0.0%)
KD 0 SUB 0 CTRL 0:01
W
Bekmyrza Dosmatov
2026-01-16
TKO (Corner Stoppage)
• R3
• 3:28
Detailed fight statistics not available
W
Kegan Gennrich
2025-08-02
Decision - Unanimous
• R3
• 5:00
Detailed fight statistics not available
W
Melvin Guillard
2025-05-17
Submission (Rear Naked Choke)
• R1
• 3:25
Detailed fight statistics not available
W
Quinton Parks Jr.
2025-03-01
KO/TKO
• R2
• 3:34
Detailed fight statistics not available
Elves Brener
Recent Form
● L
● L
● L
● L
● W
Esteban Ribovics
L
2025-08-02
U-DEC
• R3
• 5:00
122/281
(43.4%)
SS
0/0 TD
0 KD
0 SUB
1:02 CTRL
0/0 TD
0 KD
0 SUB
1:02 CTRL
Joel Alvarez
L
2024-08-03
KO/TKO
• R3
• 3:36
45/97
(46.4%)
SS
0/5 (0.0%) TD
0 KD
0 SUB
0:22 CTRL
0/5 (0.0%) TD
0 KD
0 SUB
0:22 CTRL
Joel Álvarez
L
2024-08-03
KO/TKO
• R3
• 3:36
Detailed fight statistics not available
Myktybek Orolbai
L
2024-05-04
U-DEC
• R3
• 5:00
65/119
(54.6%)
SS
5/17 (29.4%) TD
1 KD
0 SUB
7:12 CTRL
5/17 (29.4%) TD
1 KD
0 SUB
7:12 CTRL
Kaynan Kruschewsky
W
2023-11-04
KO/TKO
• R1
• 4:01
16/33
(48.5%)
SS
0/0 TD
1 KD
0 SUB
0:03 CTRL
0/0 TD
1 KD
0 SUB
0:03 CTRL
Recent Form Analysis
LAST FIVE
Josiah Harrell
4-1
Elves Brener
1-4
WIN %
Josiah Harrell
80.0%
Elves Brener
20.0%
FINISH RATE
Josiah Harrell
80.0%
Elves Brener
60.0%
AVG FIGHT LAB RATING
Josiah Harrell
--
Elves Brener
--
SIG / TD ACCURACY
Josiah Harrell
SS
50.0%
·
TD
0.0%
Elves Brener
SS
48.2%
·
TD
14.7%
AVG CONTROL
Josiah Harrell
0:01
Elves Brener
2:09
PREDICTION DATA
94%
High